Hometown Post
– This is the script of CNBC's financial news report for China's CCTV on October 27, 2026. The impact of surging oil prices is transmitting directly from gas stations to delivery packages, with market expectations pointing toward record high US package shipping costs this year. According to parcel delivery price tracking indices, fourth quarter US ground delivery rates are projected to rise 5.8% year over year, while express parcel delivery rates are expected to jump 13.8%.
Driving these shipping rate increases is the primary pressure of rising diesel costs. Data from the US Energy Information Administration shows that as of October 19th, average US highway diesel prices rose to 6.28 dollars per gallon, up roughly 65% since the outbreak of the US Iran conflict in late February. Regarding the future trajectory of diesel prices, analysts noted in interviews with CNBC that because incremental diesel supply remains constrained in the short term, market supply adjustments may fail to keep pace with demand shifts, keeping diesel prices elevated.
If winter temperatures turn unusually cold, supply pressures could intensify further. MARTIJN RATS Global Commodities Strategist Morgan Stanley "The amount of incremental diesel that we can expect from Russia in the short term it just isn't all that much. The underlying signal that it sends may actually suggest that the outlook is worse than we thought.
And quite often, the signalling can be worse than the actual supply demand impact. And that's why you then end up with this sticky diesel price." Despite sharp increases in diesel prices, industry experts emphasize that fuel prices may not be the primary driver of rising delivery costs. Rather, carriers adjusting how they calculate fuel surcharges serves as the key catalyst.
Historical data shows that in the first quarter of 2021, diesel prices averaged roughly 2.9 dollars per gallon, with fuel surcharges accounting for just 7.75% of base freight rates. However, according to newly published carrier surcharge tables, UPS fuel surcharges currently stand at 29.5%, with FedEx at 29%. This demonstrates that even without diesel price increases, overall delivery costs have steadily trended higher.
Faced with elevated shipping fees, retailers are seeking cost reduction strategies, including encouraging consumers to return online purchases to brick and mortar stores or onboarding new delivery partners like the US Postal Service and Amazon, whose fuel surcharges sit at roughly 8% and 3.5% respectively. However, diversifying delivery channels presents trade offs: splitting volumes across multiple carriers risks eroding volume based freight discounts, while switching logistics partners on short notice remains challenging given that holiday shipping plans are finalized months in advance.
Source: CNBC
